Is this finally the end of the Boeing 747 Jumbo?

Just over 50 years ago on 09 February 1969, Boeing made history as the world's largest jet airliner, the Boeing 747 named City of Everett, climbed off the new purpose-built runway into Seattle's grey sky. Thus began our love affair with what was to be dubbed the Jumbo Jet.

US carrier Pan Am was the launch customer for the Jumbo and scheduled their first service from New York to London for 7:00 pm on 21 January 1970. The service was to be flown by an aircraft named Clipper Young America. On departure from the terminal in New York, however, there were technical difficulties around one of the engines overheating. The aircraft returned to the terminal and a replacement aircraft was flown in. The replacement 747 which was called Clipper Victor, was substituted and renamed Clipper Young America. The first commercial service of the 747 Jumbo departed New York finally at 1:52 am on 22 January.

Pan Am under the stewardship of Juan Trippe was a force to be reckoned with during that time and their need for a larger aircraft than the Boeing 707 and Douglas DC-8 was a driving force in the eventual design outcome of the 747. Boeing was not completely convinced that a passenger aircraft of this size had a market. To this end, they created a design that would work well for freight airlines, which is where they saw the biggest market potential. This is of course why we have the distinctive bubble on top of the fuselage where the flight deck is located. The bubble enabled the 747 to be produced with a nose door for loading cargo with clear access to the fuselage unencumbered by a flight deck blocking the access. This may well have been a stroke of genius as we now see Boeing still producing the 747-8F, the freighter version.

Including the current 747-8, there have been 1,555 Boeing 747s delivered since that historic flight back in 1969. The 747, "Queen of the Skies", changed the world of travel and became the symbol of air travel. Appearing in songs and movies and just generally winning our hearts, the 747 has been a favourite for many years.

KLM Boeing 747-400 departing from Amsterdam. KLM has been retiring their 747s and don't anticipate the type to ever fly again under a KLM tail.

50 years is a long time in technology. Of course, the various models of the 747 have all come out with improvements and technology updates, but other technologies have also improved and eclipsed the need for a very large four-engined airliner.

Whilst Boeing is seeing a tapering off in interest in the passenger Jumbo, they at least still have the cargo version which has around 17 outstanding air-frames still to be delivered. Spare a thought for Airbus and the Airbus A380. You could say they came a little late to the Jumbo, or Super Jumbo party. By the time the first A380s were being delivered, the aviation scene was already changing, with newer technology large twin-engine airliners such as the Boeing 777, Boeing 787, Airbus A330, and Airbus A350 taking on long haul services. ETOPS certifications enabled these giant twins to fly the routes previously reserved for the 4 engined giants. The writing was on the wall.

Lufthansa Boeing 747-8 (D-ABYU) at Frankfurt Airport. Lufthansa was the launch customer for the Boeing 747-8i (International) and currently have not announced plans to retire these newer aircraft.

These changes were already well underway before the current economic market created by Covid-19 took its toll on travel. Airlines that still carried the Boeing 747 in their fleets already had firm plans in place to retire the type in the very near future. This, in many cases, was projected to happen over the first years of the 2020s, however, the effects of Covid-19 on global travel have prompted these airlines to bring forward their 747 retirement plans.

For example, Virgin Atlantic will be retiring its 7 747s very shortly. Consider that its 747 fleet has an average age of 20 years, whereas the rest of its fleet, excluding these 747s, has an average age of 9 years. This represents a significantly higher cost in maintenance for aging older technology aircraft. Lufthansa has also brought forward the retirement of 5 of its 13 Boeing 747-400s. It is worth noting that Lufthansa is one of the few airlines that bought the newer Boeing 747-8i. At the time of writing, this aircraft would still be retained by the airline. British Airways which has a large fleet of 28 747s will be working toward complete retirement of the type by 2024.

British Airways have 28 Boeing 747-400s in its fleet and are working toward retiring them all by 2024.

QANTAS for its part was looking to retire its last 6 747s by the end of 2020. The current travel climate has caused them to re-evaluate that schedule. Of the 6 mentioned, 3 have now already made their way to the aircraft graveyard in the Mojave Desert, California. The remaining 3 were scheduled to operate routes to Johannesburg, Tokyo, and Santiago until the end of 2020. It is now widely believed that the remaining 3 will follow their sisters to Mojave this month, June 2020. Foreward QANTAS schedules show that the aforementioned routes will now be flown by the Boeing 787 Dreamliner. The "Flying Kangaroo" on a 747 tail, once a very common site will be no more. By the end of the year, the only place you will be able to see a QANTAS 747 will be at HARS(Historical Aircraft Restoration Society) at Shellharbour Airport, just south of Sydney. Well worth a visit.

QANTAS Boeing 747-438. Once such a common site in our skies, soon to be no more.

I know I've had some of my most epic and memorable flights on the 747. Down the back or up the front is always a wonderful experience. Whether it be a brand new 747-200B of Air New Zealand or a really tired old QANTAS 747-400, you always felt like you were on a real airliner, the grand old Queen of the Skies. I know I will miss seeing them and being able to get on one.

Do you have any special memories of 747 flights you have taken? Feel free to share them below.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Modern Airliners.

If there is one thing there is an abundance of at the moment, it is ever-changing information about COVID-19 and how it is affecting our lives. The situation merits all the superlatives being thrown at it at the moment and literally changes by the hour. So what has this got to do with Modern Airliners or any airliners for that matter?

You would have to have arrived from Mars to not know the extreme measures that are being taken by governments to try and reduce the effect of COVID-19. Obviously, the priority is to reduce the number of people that are infected and thereby reduce the death toll from this pandemic. The second concern, and perhaps nearly as important as the first, is the economy. I hate saying that as it sounds like life isn't worth very much. The economy, however, is what makes people's lives what they are today. It provides jobs, it keeps people fed, clothed, and under shelter. Ensuring this continues will prevent the loss of life through on flowing effects of the pandemic.

We have seen border closures in many countries around the world in the last few days. Even if the borders aren't closed, there are travel restrictions and simply the fear of, "if I travel will I be able to get home again?" In living memory for most people today, this is not a concept that they have ever experienced and it may take a few who ignore the warnings to get caught out before others see the seriousness of the issue.

Ok, what has this got to do with Modern Airliners?

I thought you'd never ask. All around the world airlines have felt the impact of the above border closures and travel restrictions. Most have severely trimmed back their services to try and stem back the money bleed. Flying empty aircraft is a very costly business and is to be avoided at all costs. Initially, Australian flag carrier QANTAS grounded 10 out of its 12 Airbus A380s as these aircraft require a high occupancy rate to break even, financially. This grounding has been quickly followed by many other of its aircraft for the same reason, as further route capacity reductions or cancellations take place. This is just one example of what is happening to carriers all over the world. The immediate result has been that many travellers who have been urged to and have chosen to, repatriate themselves are finding that they are part of a very large group that is being affected by the reduction of airline capacity.

QANTAS grounded 10 out of its 12 Airbus A380s.

So what of the airlines themselves? Airlines are a very important part of the world economy. They are the catalyst that enables world economies to work at all. For this reason, it is of paramount importance for a country to ensure its national or other carriers remain in business. I know here in Australia, the government has given an economic stimulus to the airlines to enable them to survive this major upheaval. Oil prices falling off a cliff earlier this month has not been enough to make up for the drop in customers for the airlines. Even though it is estimated this could save airlines in the order of B$28 (US) over 2020. We have to face the fact that we are going to see a mass extinction event of smaller airlines.

Depending on how quickly the COVID-19 pandemic can be contained, IATA estimates that revenue losses for passenger transport would run at B$63 - B$113 (US). Impact by market according to IATA looks something like this.

Region	Percent Change	US Dollar Change
Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam.	-23%	-49.7 Billion
Rest of Asia Pacific.	-09%	-7.6 Billion
Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, United Kingdom.	-24%	-37.3 Billion
Rest of Europe.	-09%	-6.6 Billion
Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Lebanon, United Arab Emirates.	-23%	-4.9 Billion
Rest of the Middle East.	-09%	-2.3 Billion
Canada and US	-10%	-21.1 Billion

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It doesn't make for good reading, does it?

So what will happen to the grounded aircraft? It is hard to know what to plan for. How long will the pandemic last, what will the world look like when it is all over? Will we need the same capacity as before? One thing we can be sure of is that things will eventually bounce back. They may be different in some ways, but the economy will pick up again as people come back from isolation.

We may find, however, that the need for people to work from their homes during the pandemic, will lead to more technology being thrown into the online world to make things possible that currently are not. People's perceptions of travel may change. If you go back to 9/11, people became fearful of flying. Not to mention the added hassles of extra security whenever you did so.

Cruising became a much more attractive alternative for holidaymakers, as there was a much lower likelihood of terrorist attacks, or at least so it was sold. I fear that many people are losing their appetite for being on a cruise ship after what has happened to several ships since COVID-19. So maybe air travel will regain its popularity again.

So, about those aircraft. Airlines like British Airways(BA) and Lufthansa(LH) have the biggest remaining fleets of Boeing 747s. If you discount the age of Lufthansa's Boeing 747-8s which are around 6 years old now, the average age of the BA and LH 747s is around 21 years. Will they consider retiring them early? An older aircraft becomes a lot more expensive to maintain and if there is no income being generated from this aircraft, its financial burden becomes too heavy.

Airlines like British Airways(BA) and Lufthansa(LH) have the biggest remaining fleets of Boeing 747s.

So with all these aircraft grounded, what about new aircraft orders? That is the on-flow effect that will hurt plane makers like Boeing and Airbus. There will be the airlines that disappear and their orders cancelled. Then there are airlines like Cathay Pacific, for example, that have approached Boeing and Airbus about delaying their orders.

Boeing for its part has approached the US government for a B$60 stimulus package. The aviation industry must survive and it is worth noting that Boeing estimates that 70% of its revenue flows onto its 17,000 suppliers. The aviation industry is a huge employer and its demise can not be allowed to happen. Similarly, Airbus and its many suppliers are in the same boat.

Apparently, the story is not all doom and gloom. Dr. Steve Wright of the University of the West of England, Bristol(UWE Bristol) believes that the aviation industry will survive. Jobs will be lost, mainly at the customer-facing level, and of course those smaller airlines. Aviation seems to go through an 11 to 12-year cycle. Events such as 9-11 and the global recession of 2008 knocked the industry about, but it recovered. It will again. Meanwhile, Dr. Wright says, the development of new aircraft still goes on. In 5 years' time, we will still see the fruits of technology research that is going on right now.