Airbus Versus Boeing

As we all know, there are two main plane makers in the world today making the lion’s share of commercial passenger-carrying aircraft. Boeing and Airbus are more or less a duopoly in the skies and have been keenly fighting for market share for a number of years now. They've both had wins and setbacks from which they have managed to recover with lessons learned.

Now that 2019 is behind us, a year that many are quite glad to have in the rearview mirror, it might be interesting to see how it washed up for Boeing and Airbus.

It's not hard to see which aircraft model was the most prolific in 2019. The Airbus A320 family of aircraft has been selling well for Airbus and in a year where the Boeing 737 MAX was not compromised by groundings, that aircraft should have been delivered in the same numbers.

Let's not forget the turnaround in the fate of the Super Jumbo Airbus A380. That aircraft was set to pick up the reins from the Queen of the Skies, the much loved Boeing 747, and take us into the new Millenium in style. What Airbus failed to recognise was the advent of much better engine technology. This technology paved the way for the giant twin-engined jets to service those long overwater routes previously reserved for the four-engined airliners. This was bad news for Airbus as the sales of the A380 fell well short of the break-even point where the aircraft sales had covered the development and manufacturing costs. As if on a signal, different airlines cancelled their A380 orders or at least reduce them. The huge Emirates order will keep manufacturing going for a limited time until all orders of the type dry up.

It is not all bad news for Airbus, however. Where some of the A380 orders were cancelled, they were replaced by orders for the new A350 XWB. Even Emirates converted some of its A380 orders to A350 XWB orders. Obviously a cheaper option for airliners, and one that will continue to be developed into the future.

The smaller A320 family of aircraft has a higher production rate than the other models which is obvious from the graphic. These aircraft are produced in multiple locations to try and keep up with demand. Airbus is also ramping up the A220 production. The A220 was, of course, bought from Bombardier of Canada.

So, mixed results for Airbus. What of Boeing?

Boeing's story is perhaps much more dramatic and has been very much in focus throughout 2019. As we know, the first event that gave a clue that all was not well with Boeing's new 737 MAX happened in October 2018, when Lion Air flight 610 crashed into the sea shortly after takeoff from Jakarta, Indonesia. The investigation started to show there was a problem with the system that prevents the aircraft from going into a stall. The heightened likelihood of a stall was anticipated due to a larger engine on this model needing to be placed further in front of the main wing to allow it to be raised higher to achieve ground clearance.

The Boeing delivery figures for 2019 show clearly the gap left by the delivery of the smallest model, the 737. The MAX deliveries should have been around the 570 aircraft mark, not 121 as shown above. The larger aircraft such as the 787 and 777 have longer production times and so fewer are produced compared to the 737.

Tragically, this assessment was further proven correct when a second 737 MAX, Ethiopian Airlines flight 302, crashed in similar circumstances after departure from Addis Ababa in March 2019. Not even six months after Lion Air. The aviation world immediately responded by grounding the Boeing 737 MAX pending further investigation and rectification of any issues that were found.

Boeing continued to produce the 737 MAX in the hope that the grounding would be lifted and deliveries could commence. As 2019 wore on it started becoming obvious that the MAX was not going to be allowed back in the air anytime soon. The production was slowed from 52 to 42 aircraft per month, and on 14 March 2019, the first cancellation of a MAX order was received. It was from Garuda Indonesia for 49 aircraft. There have been a number of others and as we write in January 2020, Boeing has suspended production. To be honest, I believe they simply don't have the space to park any more aircraft.

There are around 400 aircraft ready to be delivered. If and when the all-clear is given and depending on what remedial work needs to be done on completed airframes to make them airworthy, Boeing will schedule the delivery of those aircraft while firing up the production lines again.

There have obviously been some bad decisions taken down at Boeing. We can only hope that they can learn from their mistakes and turn this into a win for all. Faith needs to be restored with the airlines and of course their customers, the travelling public. There is a common saying used by many, "if it ain't Boeing, I ain't going". They need to make people feel like that again to get back in the saddle.

So Boeing versus Airbus? Clearly, it has been a win for Airbus in 2019. The European planemaker came late to the party, compared to Boeing and its long history, but there is no doubt that they are a worthy adversary in the big airliner market.

Is this the return of the Supersonic Jet?

A new Supersonic Jet is just around the corner.

Not since 24 October 2003, when the futuristic Concorde made her last flight, has supersonic air travel been available to the masses. Well, we use the term masses loosely. Concorde was an extremely expensive machine to run and those who flew her paid top dollar for the privilege. In addition to the high running cost, she was also limited to flying over water at supersonic speeds due to the sonic boom created by flying above the speed of sound. For environmental reasons, most countries banned supersonic jets from flying over their territory because of the sonic boom. This naturally limited the appeal of this aircraft due to the limitation of the routes it could be usefully flown over.

It is amazing to think that this technology was available until nearly two decades ago. High-flying businessmen in London, for example, could go to New York, do their business, and be back home for dinner. Surely that demand is still there.

So what are the challenges that a Supersonic plane design has to overcome? The main ones are, cost to operate, sonic boom noise, landing/take-off noise, and emissions.

We can agree that technology has certainly made vast improvements in the time since Concorde flew. Engine technology has enabled more power to be delivered by quieter engines. Composite materials have given higher strength to airframes at lower weights as well as lower manufacturing costs. One thing remains, however, the sonic boom. This limiting factor is still a roadblock.

British Airways Concorde registration G-BOAC.

There has been, over the last couple of years, increasing pressure in the U.S. for environmental standards around supersonic transport aircraft to be relaxed. There are three start-up companies that have already invested considerable money and resources into the development of their own version of a supersonic transport aircraft.

Impression of the Boom Technologies Mach 2.2 capable airliner.

These are Boom Technologies with their Mach 2.2 capable airliner, Spike with their Mach 1.6 capable S-512 Quiet Supersonic Business Jet, and Aerion with their Mach 1.4 capable As2 Business Jet. These are all slated to be ready for service between 2023 and 2025. Even the Russians are dipping their toe back in the supersonic pond, with the United Aviation Corp (UAC) aiming to start on their own offering in 2022. You may recall Russia had a Concorde look alike, the Tupolev TU-144. Dubbed, the Koncordski. This aircraft never met with any success, being used on domestic routes only, until it suffered a final setback, breaking up in flight over the Paris Air Show.

Spike S-512 might just be the world’s very first supersonic business jet.

Meanwhile, the household name manufacturers are still hard on the case. Boeing has had various designs over the years to enable it to enter the Super Sonic Transport (SST) space. None have got much further than the drawing board. They are, however, working on a new concept that they hope will reinvent our expectations of fast flight. The hypersonic airliner will travel at Mach 5, which is about 3800 mph (6110 km/h) or five times the speed of sound. This is still around twenty to thirty years away and no doubt will depend on technology that to date has yet to be made available.

Lockheed Martin also has an offering in the works. In 2018 Lockheed Martin was selected to design a Low Boom Flight Demonstrator(LBFD). Their X-59 QueSST (Quiet SST) will fly at 55,000 feet at a speed of around 940 mph / 1,513 kph / 817 knots. The aim is to reduce the sonic boom from a boom to a light thump, a bit like a car door closing.

In July 2018, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), under the lead authorship of Dan Rutherford produced a report called, "Environmental performance of emerging supersonic transport aircraft". The report was drawn from studies and simulations carried out at Stanford University and was in response to mounting pressure on the Trump Administration to relax rules governing overland supersonic flight in the U.S.A..

The report looked back at Concorde and compared it with conventional airliners of the day, say the Boeing 747. It was obvious that in every aspect, the Concorde was less environmentally friendly. The supersonic plane was less fuel efficient, noisier at airfields, emitted higher levels of nitric oxide in the take-off and landing phases, and had higher levels of carbon dioxide in cruise, not to mention the sonic boom. They then looked at the situation today. As we've mentioned already, technology has moved forward in many aspects of aircraft manufacturing. Does this work for the supersonic jet manufacturer? Yes, of course, new things are possible now that were not in the 1960s when Concorde was developed. However, the bar has been lifted as far as eco standards around commercial aircraft are concerned.

The report found that the gap between conventional airliners and the new generation of supersonic planes was much the same as those in the time of Concorde. So, let's say the U.S. relaxes its rules around supersonic jet travel. Will this be enough of a market for plane makers to make a profit out of? The U.S. relaxing its rules doesn't mean other countries will follow. In fact, some European countries have made it clear that they will not entertain the idea of supersonic flights over their territories. Even flying to those countries, with the last overland portion done at subsonic speeds may not work, as there are still airport noise and emission standards to overcome. So, needless to say, a complex issue.

For an aircraft manufacturer, the idea is to develop an aircraft for which you have calculated there is a market that will enable you to sell enough to recoup your cost, as well as make a profit. Some of the supersonic jet maker start-ups are estimating that they will be producing up to 2,000 airframes. These aircraft will serve up to 500 cities by 2035. Imagine, around 5,000 supersonic flights a day. Over a 16-hour flying day, there could be a sonic boom every 15 minutes.

Needless to say, there are exciting times ahead. We would love to see the return of supersonic flight, but in a way that is sustainable to the environment. There is no doubt that solutions to the roadblocks will be found.

Boeing 747 8, are we falling out of love?

Our love affair with the Boeing 747 goes back 4 decades to those heady days of aviation when fuel was cheap and Juan Trippe and the boys at Pan Am asked Boeing to build them a much bigger airplane.  Never has an airliner captured the imagination of the public, appeared in so many movies, and made travel possible as much as the venerable Queen of the Skies.  We have seen her grow through 5 main variants, the 100, 200, 300 400, and SP.

Of all these, the 747 400 has been the most successful.  We know her well with her stretched upper deck bubble and winglets.  Never a real beauty but certainly majestic, she was seen at every major airport in the world.  With 442 produced she was the flagship of many of the world’s airlines.

It has now been 10 years since the last 747 400 Jumbo jet was handed over to China Airlines.  A decade.  It is also a decade since Airbus entered the Jumbo airliner market with their A380 Super Jumbo.  Of course, the A380 had been in development for many years already and perhaps its coming prompted orders for the 747 400 to diminish in anticipation.

Two Boeing 747 400s of Air France, one climbing out while the the other taxis.

So where was Boeing?  

The 747-400 program was winding down, but it seemed like there wasn't a successor waiting in the wings to take over.  There were a few attempts at tempting the market with a full two-decker version and a few other variations, but nothing concrete that the market wanted.  As we know, in the end, a significantly stretched version of the old 747 shape was decided upon and flew for the first time 5 years after the last 747 400 was delivered.  

The Boeing 747 8 comes in two versions; the Boeing 747 8 Intercontinental and the Boeing 747 8 Freighter. Boeing was hedging their bets by appealing to two arms of the market, just as they did with the first 747 which is why we have the bubble cockpit on top.  This allows a nose door to be installed for straight-through cargo access to the main deck.

So, why are we falling out of love with our Jumbo?  

Well, more particularly, why are airlines falling out of love? The correct question might be why haven't airlines fallen in love with the Boeing 747 8?  Sales have  been very soft, certainly for the 747 8 Intercontinental, the passenger version.  But, let's not think it's all about Boeing.  Airbus have also been experiencing a challenge with their A380 sales, with not one new customer being added in the last 3 years.  They need to build and sell 30 aircraft a year to make it an economically viable product.  This challenge is further exacerbated by the fact that second hand A380s are starting to come onto the market with airlines like Malaysia Airlines and Thai International talking of selling some of their 3 year old aircraft.  This will seriously undermine the prices of new aircraft.

An Airbus A380 in flight in Dubai in November 2006.

So what are airlines doing about their long haul high volume routes?  It's almost as if they are hedging their bets to see which way technology goes.  We know that the skies are starting to belong to the big twins.  Airliners such as the Boeing 777, Boeing 787, Airbus A350, and Airbus A330 are now becoming the mainstay of many of the world’s airlines.  But still, they seem to want a Jumbo in their fleets.

In the last few years we have seen major airlines like British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Thai International and QANTAS to name but a few, go through major refurbishment programs on their 747 400s.  QANTAS for example has completed a $250 million program to update and upgrade the interiors of 9 of its 747 400s.  The selling point being, that now the 747 400 seats are just like those on their Airbus A380s.

So are airlines waiting to see what happens with the Jumbo market?  When you consider that the list per unit price for a Boeing 747 8 Intercontinental is US$357.5 million and the cost of an Airbus A380 is US$318 million it makes sense to spend $250 million and have 9 airliners.

Lufthansa was the launch customer for the Boeing 747-8I. The passenger version of the 747-8 is known as the 8I where I stands for Intercontinental.

It seems the end of the age of the Jumbo four-engined airliner may be not far off.  Airbus and Boeing will pull the rug at some stage if they can't sell them and concentrate on their cash cows; the Boeing 777, Boeing 777X, and the Airbus A350 XWB.

We would love to hear about your experiences travelling on a newly refurbished Boeing 747 400.  Do they feel new, do you feel this is money well spent by the airline?