Boeing 747 8, are we falling out of love?

Our love affair with the Boeing 747 goes back 4 decades to those heady days of aviation when fuel was cheap and Juan Trippe and the boys at Pan Am asked Boeing to build them a much bigger airplane.  Never has an airliner captured the imagination of the public, appeared in so many movies, and made travel possible as much as the venerable Queen of the Skies.  We have seen her grow through 5 main variants, the 100, 200, 300 400, and SP.

Of all these, the 747 400 has been the most successful.  We know her well with her stretched upper deck bubble and winglets.  Never a real beauty but certainly majestic, she was seen at every major airport in the world.  With 442 produced she was the flagship of many of the world’s airlines.

It has now been 10 years since the last 747 400 Jumbo jet was handed over to China Airlines.  A decade.  It is also a decade since Airbus entered the Jumbo airliner market with their A380 Super Jumbo.  Of course, the A380 had been in development for many years already and perhaps its coming prompted orders for the 747 400 to diminish in anticipation.

Two Boeing 747 400s of Air France, one climbing out while the the other taxis.

So where was Boeing?  

The 747-400 program was winding down, but it seemed like there wasn't a successor waiting in the wings to take over.  There were a few attempts at tempting the market with a full two-decker version and a few other variations, but nothing concrete that the market wanted.  As we know, in the end, a significantly stretched version of the old 747 shape was decided upon and flew for the first time 5 years after the last 747 400 was delivered.  

The Boeing 747 8 comes in two versions; the Boeing 747 8 Intercontinental and the Boeing 747 8 Freighter. Boeing was hedging their bets by appealing to two arms of the market, just as they did with the first 747 which is why we have the bubble cockpit on top.  This allows a nose door to be installed for straight-through cargo access to the main deck.

So, why are we falling out of love with our Jumbo?  

Well, more particularly, why are airlines falling out of love? The correct question might be why haven't airlines fallen in love with the Boeing 747 8?  Sales have  been very soft, certainly for the 747 8 Intercontinental, the passenger version.  But, let's not think it's all about Boeing.  Airbus have also been experiencing a challenge with their A380 sales, with not one new customer being added in the last 3 years.  They need to build and sell 30 aircraft a year to make it an economically viable product.  This challenge is further exacerbated by the fact that second hand A380s are starting to come onto the market with airlines like Malaysia Airlines and Thai International talking of selling some of their 3 year old aircraft.  This will seriously undermine the prices of new aircraft.

An Airbus A380 in flight in Dubai in November 2006.

So what are airlines doing about their long haul high volume routes?  It's almost as if they are hedging their bets to see which way technology goes.  We know that the skies are starting to belong to the big twins.  Airliners such as the Boeing 777, Boeing 787, Airbus A350, and Airbus A330 are now becoming the mainstay of many of the world’s airlines.  But still, they seem to want a Jumbo in their fleets.

In the last few years we have seen major airlines like British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Thai International and QANTAS to name but a few, go through major refurbishment programs on their 747 400s.  QANTAS for example has completed a $250 million program to update and upgrade the interiors of 9 of its 747 400s.  The selling point being, that now the 747 400 seats are just like those on their Airbus A380s.

So are airlines waiting to see what happens with the Jumbo market?  When you consider that the list per unit price for a Boeing 747 8 Intercontinental is US$357.5 million and the cost of an Airbus A380 is US$318 million it makes sense to spend $250 million and have 9 airliners.

Lufthansa was the launch customer for the Boeing 747-8I. The passenger version of the 747-8 is known as the 8I where I stands for Intercontinental.

It seems the end of the age of the Jumbo four-engined airliner may be not far off.  Airbus and Boeing will pull the rug at some stage if they can't sell them and concentrate on their cash cows; the Boeing 777, Boeing 777X, and the Airbus A350 XWB.

We would love to hear about your experiences travelling on a newly refurbished Boeing 747 400.  Do they feel new, do you feel this is money well spent by the airline?

The Mystery of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.

Every year it seems the world is getting smaller with us humans taking up more and more space.  The feeling is, where can you go that is not crawling with people already, is there any wild unconquered territory anywhere anymore?

Contrast that with trying to find a huge airliner that we know has crashed into the sea.  The oceans are still vast and for the most part, do not have their floors charted.  I am not just talking about MH370, but also Air France flight AF447 which crashed into the mid-Atlantic on a flight from Rio de Janeiro to Paris in June of 2009.  Air France followed a logical route from Rio to Paris so the searchers had a fairly good fighting chance of knowing where to look.  How long did that search take?  Two Years!  Two years of theories and counter-theories before finally a result was arrived at.

The tail section of the Air France flight AF447 is found floating in the mid Atlantic.

So, back to MH370.  We all know the story inside out by now.  Well, we have suffered through the theories, reports of sightings, and satellite handshakes.  In a few days, it will be 18 months since the tragic accident that left behind anguished and frustrated relatives and friends of the victims.  What progress has been made in the search for the Boeing 777?

Millions have been spent by countries like Australia and China in the search of the Indian Ocean.  However, the biggest breakthrough has to be the discovery of the flaperon on a remote beach on the remote island of Reunion in the western Indian Ocean.  I must admit to being a doubter when I first heard the theory of the aircraft coming down in the Indian Ocean.  This was an area so far and completely in the wrong direction from the intended flight path that it made the whole idea seem fanciful and surreal.  I must admit to being skeptical right up until the time the flaperon was found.

The Malaysian Airliners Flight 370 flaperon is taken away by authorities on Reunion Island to be sent to Toulouse France for investigation.

I'm not an oceanographer but I couldn't understand how an aircraft full of floating objects such as seat squabs, neck pillows, and flotsam could disappear so completely.  I could not believe that a Boeing 777 could be easily landed on water(assuming anyone was still alive to do so) in one piece.  Yes, we know the story of Captain Sullenberger performing that amazing feat of landing his aircraft on the Hudson River, a truly remarkable piece of aviating.  The Indian Ocean is not the Hudson River and would rarely be calm enough to offer a perfectly flat surface.  The Boeing 777 has the biggest jet engines around, so they would be wonderful water scoops that would have the effect of ripping the wings off as they filled with forward motion arresting water.  My point is the chance of the aircraft remaining intact and preventing floating objects from escaping seems to be very remote.

The French island of Reunion. A very remote part of the world.

Today (04 Sep 15) we learn that the French have confirmed that there are enough corresponding serial numbers on the flaperon found in French-ruled Reunion Island to be able to say it is from the doomed Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.   This is confirmation at least that MH 370 is to be found in the Indian Ocean somewhere.  Through reverse analysis of ocean currents and severe weather anomalies over the past 18 months, oceanographers and meteorologists now have a chance to try and pin down more accurately the final resting place of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.  Perhaps a saving grace is that the piece found was a heavier item that floated below the water's surface.  This means that the ocean currents would be the strongest governing factor in its journey, rather than the more volatile winds it encountered on its way.

We can only hope that with this new information, questions can be answered to allow MH370 to be found.  For the sake of the loved ones who need closure.  For aviation itself, no accident or tragic event is ever left unsolved.   Not for curiosity but for fight safety.  Your ability to step onto a plane and give no thought to your chances of stepping off at the other end of the journey is a hard-won expectation.  Every event is investigated to the finest detail to ensure these events never happen again.  One day we will know what transpired on MH 370.  One day we will know that those who tragically lost their lives on MH 370 will teach us a lesson that will help us save more lives in the future.

Please feel free to comment or leave your thoughts about MH 370.